Was Siba the Standard Poodle a Typical Best in Show Winner in 2020 at Westminster? Winner Probabilities Provide Insight…
The Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show and Stone Run Afternoon Tea
Every year thousands of dogs frolic to New York City to compete for a “Best in Show” prize at the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show. The Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show began in 1877 and continues to the present time as an event to showcase dogs based on how closely they conform to written guidelines of an ideal dog specimen for each breed of dog. Since the show’s conception in the 1800s, the judges of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show view each dog by breed under model breed conditions and decide how well these dogs appear to be able to perform specific tasks allocated for each breed. A dog receives the “Best in Show” denotation as a statement the dog is the best bred dog of the year in comparison with the other dogs of the world. In 2020, a standard poodle named “Stone Run Afternoon Tea,” or “Siba” for short, received the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show award. There are so many dogs that compete for the title of Best in Show dog that determining what dog will win or which dog should win could be difficult. Siba won the dog show prize in 2020, but just looking at gender, dog grouping, and breed, was she a typical winner of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show prize?
Probabilities of Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show past winners between 1907 and the present provide a knowledge base.
A Probability Mass Function or PMF is used in data science and statistics to associate probabilities with discrete random variables or known possible outcomes. Was Siba the standard poodle a characteristic winner of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show prize? Here are a few PMFs showing probabilities displayed in congruence with the known winners of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show prize from the years 1907 to the present time. These PMFs provide information on how Siba compares with the other Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show winners and explain how Siba’s victory relates to the data of past dog show victors.
The Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show winners can be divided into two groups based off gender: male and female. There were 41 female best in show winners and 71 male best in show winners from 1907 to the present. A probability mass function of these dogs is shown below:
The PMF shows female dogs at 37 percent and male dogs at 63 percent. This graph expresses that of all the dogs that have won the Westminster Kennel Club dog show Best in Show prize between 1907 and the present, 37 percent of the Best in Show winners were female and 63 percent of the Best in Show winners were male. Most winners were male, but Siba is a female dog and belongs with the 37 percent section of the graph.
The Westminster Kennel Club places all dogs into grouping classes when they get evaluated for the show. These classes represent the specific actions a dog performs in the real world and relate to each specific dog breed. The groups are as follows: Herding, Hound, Non-Sporting, Sporting, Terrier, Toy, and Working. A PMF below shows the 3 herding, 6 hound, 12 non-sporting, 19 sporting, 48 terrier, 10 toy, and 14 working best in show winners:
The PMF projects from 1907 to the present the most Best in Show winners were in the terrier group making up 43 percent of Best in Show winners. Siba’s group is the non-sporting group. Her group contains only 11 percent of Best in Show winners in the years 1907 to the present.
Each Best in Show dog winner is placed in breed categories at the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show. Every purebred dog that exists has a breed. The breeds of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show follow exactly the standard breed categorizations made by the Westminster Kennel Club. Here is a PMF of all the Best in Show winners from 1907 to present day by breed categorization:
The breed of dog that has won the most Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show titles is the Wire Fox Terrier. The Wire Fox Terrier has won the Best in Show title 13.39 percent of the time out of the Best in Show victories determined between 1907 and the present. The 2020 Best in Show winner, Siba, is of the standard poodle dog breed. Standard poodles have won the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show title 4.46 percent of the time between 1907 and today.
Is Siba, the standard poodle, a typical Westminster Kennel Club Best in Show winner compared to past winners of the prize?
The most likely dog to win the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show title would be a male Wire Fox Terrier from the Terrier group. 63 percent of males, 43 percent of dogs from the terrier group, and 13.39 percent of Wire Fox terriers won the title of Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show between 1907 and the present. The 2020 Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show winner, Siba, is a female standard poodle from the non-sporting group. She is part of the 37 percent of females, 11 percent of non-sporting dogs, and 4.46 percent of standard poodles that won the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show title between 1907 and the present. Siba is not the most likely dog to win the Best in Show prize, but she is still more likely to win the prize than a lot of dogs. Ultimately, following the data from Best in Show past winners of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show, Siba had an average to below average chance of winning the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show. She is not a usual winner of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show Best in Show prize, but she definitely is a beautiful dog to be remembered who exudes a demeanor of extreme regality and grace.
Sources:
